Correct Score & Poisson Calculator
Goals in football follow a Poisson distribution closely, so if you know each team's expected goals (xG) you can work out the probability of any scoreline. This free Poisson calculator turns two xG figures into correct-score, 1X2 and over/under probabilities with fair odds.
Enter the home and away expected goals — from an xG model, or by taking each team's average goals scored and conceded. It builds the full score matrix and shows the most likely scores plus the fair match-result and totals odds.
Home
2.04
49.0%
Draw
4.02
24.9%
Away
3.82
26.2%
Over 2.5 goals
1.98 · 50.6%
Under 2.5 goals
2.03 · 49.4%
Most likely scores
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Frequently asked questions
How does the Poisson correct-score model work?
Each team's goals are modelled as Poisson with mean equal to its expected goals. The probability of a scoreline h–a is P(home = h) × P(away = a). Summing the relevant cells gives 1X2, over/under and any other derived market.
Where do I get expected goals?
From an xG data source, or estimate it: average a team's goals scored and the opponent's goals conceded, adjusted for home advantage. Better xG in means better odds out.
What are the model's limits?
Basic Poisson assumes goals are independent and ignores correlation (e.g. game state) — real matches have slightly more draws and 0–0s than it predicts. It's a strong baseline, not a crystal ball.
Related reading
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